The aim of the project is to develop a long-term perspective on the development of prosperity in Germany and Europe over the next 50 years. Demographic changes will have a major impact on the development of the labour market and standard of living in most European countries. The challenges of ecological transformation will also become more tangible for many people. At the same time, new developments and applications in the field of generative AI promise to extend the reach of automation and increase labour productivity.

Against the background of these 'macro trends', how can employment and living standards be secured and organised in the long term?

In order to overcome the challenges of demographic change, the potential of higher labour force participation and immigration of workers is often analysed.

In quantitative scenarios, we analyse the development of key demographic and economic parameters under ceteris paribus assumptions. We supplement the aforementioned solution approaches with the influence of rising labour productivity. The assumptions on future productivity trends are based on estimates of the current status and future potential of automation levels from Project 2.

Initial scenario calculations show that the contribution of immigration to overcoming the negative consequences of demographic change on the monetary standard of living is rather low, that of higher labour force participation rates is medium and that of higher productivity is high to very high.

We therefore consider the long-term conditions for a Socio-ecologically sustainable innovation and productivity initiative in Germany and Europe. In addition to technical developments, good labour, the reduction of inequality and ecological sustainability are essential prerequisites.