IAB Colloquium Nuremberg

Germany 2070: Labour market, demography and productivity

Following the opening of the travelling exhibition at the Federal Employment Agency, Dr Cornelius Markert (Managing Director of IGZA) and Marc Amlinger (IGZA) were invited to take part in the IAB Colloquium. In their presentation, the two spoke about Germany's long-term prospects up to the year 2070 and highlighted key developments and challenges in the areas of the labour market, demographics and productivity.

In the next 50 years, the labour market and prosperity in Germany and Europe will be shaped by the baby boomer generation leaving the workforce. All other things being equal, GDP per capita will fall by 6,000 euros by 2070 as a result of demographic change - from 46,000 euros today to 40,000 euros. Long-term net migration of + 250,000 people per year could only compensate for this decline by 2,000 euros, while an increase in the labour force participation rate to 85 percent could compensate for it by 4,000 euros.

The decisive contribution to a solution can only be made by increasing labour productivity: Annual growth in hourly productivity of just 1 per cent could increase GDP per capita by 24,000 euros by 2070. The goal for the coming decades should be an innovation and productivity initiative that is accompanied by good work, a fair distribution of productivity gains and ecological sustainability.

The assumptions on future productivity potential are based on estimates of industry-specific potential savings in the necessary working time. They are part of a project to empirically record the degree of automation in different activities, production stages and economic sectors.